IMD update: Extremely severe rain for Coastal AP as cyclone watch continues

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Andhra coast is increasingly in focus, though the time of landfall and area thereof remain uncertain. Isolated very heavy rain is forecast for Tamil Nadu, Kerala, South Interior Karnataka, Lakshadweep.

By Vinson Kurian

Updated - October 24, 2026 at 11:50 AM.

The low-pressure area over Arabian Sea and Lakshadweep will combine with the well-marked ‘low’ over the Bay of Bengal to drive expansive rain over the South Peninsula (in red, yellow, green) until Sunday. | Photo Credit: www.meteologix.com/in

Coastal Andhra Pradesh is in the crosshairs of a brewing Bay of Bengal storm, with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) warning of isolated, extremely heavy rain of 20 cm or more on Monday and Tuesday. 

The well-marked low-pressure area over the east-central Bay is expected to become a depression later today (Saturday), deepen into a deep depression on Sunday and potentially graduate into cyclone Arnab by Monday morning. With the system likely to strengthen further as it heads west-northwest, the Andhra coast is increasingly in focus, though the time of landfall and area thereof remains uncertain.

TN Puducherry in firing line

Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal are also in the firing line, with isolated very heavy rain forecast over the next three days from Saturday. The emerging system is expected to work in tandem with a counterpart ‘low’ over the south-east Arabian Sea and adjoining Lakshadweep, keeping the rain engines humming on both sides of the peninsula.

Here is how the next few days are shaping up:

Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam: Isolated extremely heavy rain (20 cm or more) on Monday and Tuesday.

Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal: Isolated very heavy rain (11–20 cm) from Saturday through Monday.

Kerala and Mahe: Isolated very heavy rain on Saturday and Sunday; isolated heavy rain on Monday.

Lakshadweep: Isolated very heavy rain on Saturday, followed by isolated heavy rain on Sunday.

South Interior Karnataka: Isolated heavy rain on Saturday.

Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Yanam and Telangana: Isolated heavy rain again on Thursday.

Beyond cyclone path

The rain threat extends well beyond the prospective cyclone’s path. Even before the main act reaches the coast, its wider circulation and the companion Arabian Sea system could keep the larger South Peninsula states on a wet-weather footing. The system is expected to move west-northwest, gathering strength. The forecast progression is an escalating one: a depression on Saturday, a deep depression on Sunday and, potentially, a cyclonic storm by Monday morning over the west-central Bay off the Andhra Pradesh coast. 

Google DeepMind projections cited for the system indicate a 91 per cent probability of it reaching the equivalent of Category 4 intensity on the Saffir-Simpson scale, which runs from Category 1 to Category 5. That would imply a major escalation in destructive potential, should the forecast materialise. The system’s Saturday-morning position offers a useful clue to the evolving threat. 

System coordinates

The system centre lay about 663 km south-east of Brahmapur in Odisha; 775 km east-south-east of Visakhapatnam; 1,097 km east-north-east of Nellore; and 1,118 km north-east of Chennai on Saturday morning. The geography puts the system closer to Odisha than to Chennai, while the forecast track is increasingly drawing attention towards the Andhra Pradesh coast. Distance alone, though, does not settle the landfall question: the system’s subsequent movement and changes in steering winds will matter.

Lends extra muscle

Think of a tropical cyclone as a vast heat engine. Warm seawater supplies heat and moisture; rising air releases energy through condensation, helping thunderstorms build around the storm’s core. The waters beneath the developing system are reported to be around 30°C, exceptionally warm (warmest among global tropics) and conducive to cyclone development. Parts of the south-east and east-central Arabian Sea are similarly warm.

That is fuel in the tank. But whether the storm can turn it into explosive intensification depends on the atmosphere above. Wind shear is the first decisive factor. This is the change in wind speed or direction with height. Strong vertical wind shear can tilt a storm’s structure and blow its upper-level circulation out of alignment, disrupting the engine. Lower shear allows it to remain better organised and potentially strengthen.

Longer stay over water 

The system is forecast to encounter relatively favourable conditions, with a sufficiently coherent upper-level outflow potentially helping it ventilate its towering thunderstorms. In simple terms, the storm needs room to breathe as it builds. Another factor to watch is the system’s pace of lateral movement. A storm that crawls towards the coast can spend longer over warm water, potentially gaining strength before landfall. A slower track can also prolong heavy rainfall over affected areas.

Potent combination

The US Joint Typhoon Warning Center has placed the system about 633 km from Visakhapatnam in its assessment, while sea-surface temperatures across the west-central and adjoining north-east Bay have reportedly risen over the past week. Waters nearer the Andhra Pradesh coast are cooler by comparison, adding another variable to the intensification equation. Warm seas, favourable wind shear and time over water could make for a potent combination. Yet none guarantees a particular intensity: the storm’s internal structure, steering currents and changing environmental conditions will all have a say.

Where, when and how strong?

For now, three questions loom large: How rapidly will the depression intensify? How close will the storm track run to the country’s east coast? And where will it finally make a landfall, if it does so along that stretch? The next IMD bulletins should help narrow the track and clarify the timing and exact area. Until then, the prudent course is to follow official updates rather than treat any projected landfall point or intensity as settled.

Published on October 24, 2026

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